Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

526.46 – 287.04

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

721 – 352

Prediction correct · off by 129.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 834.6 ±9.8

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 301.71Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6017PrepaTec - Cyberius

Season APEX 219.7Event APEX 183.74Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11178Revelation

Season APEX 196Event APEX 41.01Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 612.9 ±9.3

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 49.35Rank 48Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 120.3Rank 70Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 117.39Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4414, 6017, 11178

/ 100 compat

Projected

526.5 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 4414, 6017, 11178

Auto

97.3 19%

Teleop

295.0 57%

Endgame

124.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2718, 4065, 5534

/ 100 compat

Projected

287 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 2718, 4065, 5534

Auto

58.3 20%

Teleop

162.0 57%

Endgame

64.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.71 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score526.5pts

Blue projected score287pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 239.4
Score range: 216–597
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1073 vs event baseline 396.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

834.6Season APEX612.9

97.3Auto58.3

295Teleop162

124.8Endgame64.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	129	60
teleop	413	195
endgame	179	97
foul	0	0
total	721	352

Result

Final score

721 – 352

Prediction correct · off by 129.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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