Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

147.37 – 279.87

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

355 – 328

Prediction missed · off by 127.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 535.3 ±11

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 75.47Rank 59Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3880Tiki Techs

Season APEX 132.6Event APEX -24.85Rank 51Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 96.75Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 480.3 ±10.5

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 41.26Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 82.49Rank 57Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3646INTEGRA BAHCESEHIR

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 156.12Rank 65Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2530, 3880, 11141

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.4 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 2530, 3880, 11141

Auto

13.1 9%

Teleop

103.2 71%

Endgame

28.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1741, 9545, 3646

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.9 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 1741, 9545, 3646

Auto

75.2 27%

Teleop

134.7 48%

Endgame

71.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score147.4pts

Blue projected score279.9pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -132.5
Score range: 77–350
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 683 vs event baseline 386.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

535.3Season APEX480.3

13.1Auto75.2

103.2Teleop134.7

28.8Endgame71.1

60Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	54
teleop	218	138
endgame	76	76
foul	5	60
total	355	328

Result

Final score

355 – 328

Prediction missed · off by 127.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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