Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

432.33 – 281.75

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

327 – 455

Prediction missed · off by 139.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 662.4 ±9.3

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 79.98Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1939THE KUHNIGHTS

Season APEX 214Event APEX 224.24Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 128.11Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 714.2 ±9.8

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 80.63Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 90.12Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 111Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 972, 1939, 1629

/ 100 compat

Projected

432.3 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 972, 1939, 1629

Auto

90.2 22%

Teleop

261.7 62%

Endgame

67.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 340, 9094, 4674

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.8 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 340, 9094, 4674

Auto

65.2 24%

Teleop

182.5 67%

Endgame

24.2 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.27 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score432.3pts

Blue projected score281.8pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 150.6
Score range: 210–504
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 782 vs event baseline 400.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

662.4Season APEX714.2

90.2Auto65.2

261.7Teleop182.5

67.5Endgame24.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	90
teleop	150	291
endgame	120	74
foul	0	0
total	327	455

Result

Final score

327 – 455

Prediction missed · off by 139.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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