Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

253.15 – 465.12

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

108 – 466

Prediction correct · off by 73 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 517.4 ±11

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 127.37Rank 57Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3880Tiki Techs

Season APEX 132.6Event APEX 48.41Rank 51Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 77.37Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 715.8 ±9.3

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 161.13Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10213BALTA

Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 160.38Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6919The Commodores

Season APEX 232.5Event APEX 143.61Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9545, 3880, 3990

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.2 pts

~0.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 9545, 3880, 3990

Auto

57.1 24%

Teleop

129.9 54%

Endgame

55.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11, 10213, 6919

/ 100 compat

Projected

465.1 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 11, 10213, 6919

Auto

56.0 13%

Teleop

256.9 58%

Endgame

131.2 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.54 · Blue 2.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score253.2pts

Blue projected score465.1pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -212
Score range: 180–538
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 574 vs event baseline 407.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

517.4Season APEX715.8

57.1Auto56

129.9Teleop256.9

55.2Endgame131.2

128Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	38
teleop	30	258
endgame	20	150
foul	0	20
total	108	466

Result

Final score

108 – 466

Prediction correct · off by 73 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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