Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

337.98 – 295.86

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

326 – 417

Prediction missed · off by 66.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 811 ±10.7

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 127.11Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 101.93Rank 55Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6998Unipards

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 108.94Rank 49Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 641 ±9.8

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 29.09Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 109.09Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9175BrainMachine-FRC

Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 157.68Rank 31Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5813, 1538, 6998

/ 100 compat

Projected

338 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 5813, 1538, 6998

Auto

73.3 22%

Teleop

180.8 54%

Endgame

78.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3990, 176, 9175

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.9 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 3990, 176, 9175

Auto

95.5 32%

Teleop

136.9 46%

Endgame

62.5 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score338pts

Blue projected score295.9pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.1
Score range: 226–408
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 743 vs event baseline 388.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

811Season APEX641

73.3Auto95.5

180.8Teleop136.9

78.2Endgame62.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	97
teleop	195	231
endgame	29	89
foul	30	0
total	326	417

Result

Final score

326 – 417

Prediction missed · off by 66.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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