Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

207.9 – 318.85

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

305 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 52.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 576.7 ±9.3

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 83.29Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 60.85Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 63.76Rank 37Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 713.8 ±8.7

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 68.21Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 93.42Rank 38Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 157.22Rank 39Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1727, 303, 6696

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.9 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 1727, 303, 6696

Auto

26.9 14%

Teleop

113.6 60%

Endgame

48.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 469, 2429, 8724

/ 100 compat

Projected

318.9 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 469, 2429, 8724

Auto

26.1 8%

Teleop

173.8 55%

Endgame

113.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score207.9pts

Blue projected score318.9pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -111
Score range: 138–389
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 631 vs event baseline 391.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

576.7Season APEX713.8

26.9Auto26.1

113.6Teleop173.8

48.4Endgame113.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	86
teleop	145	165
endgame	99	70
foul	5	5
total	305	326

Result

Final score

305 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 52.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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