Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

329.43 – 230.56

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

297 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 23 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 568 ±10.5

3008Team Magma

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 48.19Rank 62Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4188Columbus Space Program

Season APEX 214.1Event APEX 112.75Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 168.49Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 555.1 ±9.9

5557BB-R8ERS

Season APEX 144.3Event APEX 91.78Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 58.84Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 79.94Rank 26Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3008, 4188, 5847

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.4 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 3008, 4188, 5847

Auto

41.4 13%

Teleop

206.4 64%

Endgame

76.6 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5557, 1741, 1058

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.6 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 5557, 1741, 1058

Auto

58.1 26%

Teleop

135.3 59%

Endgame

34.4 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.1 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score329.4pts

Blue projected score230.6pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 98.9
Score range: 158–402
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 514 vs event baseline 404.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

568Season APEX555.1

41.4Auto58.1

206.4Teleop135.3

76.6Endgame34.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	79
teleop	154	70
endgame	92	68
foul	0	0
total	297	217

Result

Final score

297 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 23 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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