Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

267.34 – 242.71

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

506 – 541

Prediction missed · off by 268.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 767.6 ±9.3

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 69.76Rank 70Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6941IronPulse Robotics

Season APEX 267.4Event APEX 111.58Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX 86Rank 52Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 743.4 ±9.3

3538RoboJackets

A+

Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 74.32Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10213BALTA

Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 141.18Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 27.21Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4065, 6941, 1156

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.3 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 4065, 6941, 1156

Auto

67.5 26%

Teleop

141.4 54%

Endgame

55.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3538, 10213, 972

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.7 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 3538, 10213, 972

Auto

40.4 18%

Teleop

109.3 49%

Endgame

75.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score267.3pts

Blue projected score242.7pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.6
Score range: 171–339
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 1047 vs event baseline 398.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

767.6Season APEX743.4

67.5Auto40.4

141.4Teleop109.3

55.3Endgame75.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	116
teleop	304	290
endgame	115	95
foul	0	40
total	506	541

Result

Final score

506 – 541

Prediction missed · off by 268.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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