Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

212.03 – 276.8

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

373 – 224

Prediction missed · off by 106.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 619.8 ±9.3

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 94.07Rank 17Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 70.28Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

999MechaRAMS

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 47.68Rank 68Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 576.3 ±10.4

11178Revelation

Season APEX 196Event APEX 77.18Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 114.35Rank 59Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 85.27Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3314, 9094, 999

/ 100 compat

Projected

212 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 3314, 9094, 999

Auto

54.9 28%

Teleop

96.8 49%

Endgame

46.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11178, 2530, 2472

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.8 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 11178, 2530, 2472

Auto

31.9 12%

Teleop

153.2 56%

Endgame

87.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.2 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score212pts

Blue projected score276.8pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.8
Score range: 139–350
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 597 vs event baseline 403.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

619.8Season APEX576.3

54.9Auto31.9

96.8Teleop153.2

46Endgame87.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	64
teleop	196	96
endgame	105	49
foul	0	15
total	373	224

Result

Final score

373 – 224

Prediction missed · off by 106.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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