Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

398.66 – 209.75

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

456 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 90.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 717.9 ±10.5

3646INTEGRA BAHCESEHIR

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 127.74Rank 65Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5550BRONChO BOTS

Season APEX 184.7Event APEX 122.92Rank 50Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 148Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 603.9 ±9.8

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 122.74Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 78.57Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 8.44Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3646, 5550, 1323

/ 100 compat

Projected

398.7 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 3646, 5550, 1323

Auto

86.0 22%

Teleop

227.6 58%

Endgame

80.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1629, 4674, 3990

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.8 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 1629, 4674, 3990

Auto

50.8 25%

Teleop

127.2 62%

Endgame

28.3 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score398.7pts

Blue projected score209.8pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 188.9
Score range: 136–473
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 790 vs event baseline 410.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

717.9Season APEX603.9

86Auto50.8

227.6Teleop127.2

80.3Endgame28.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	80
teleop	222	219
endgame	160	30
foul	5	5
total	456	334

Result

Final score

456 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 90.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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