Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

411.44 – 388.51

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

373 – 448

Prediction missed · off by 49 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 697.1 ±8.7

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 174.58Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 118.57Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 118.29Rank 55Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 759 ±10.4

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 134.29Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 81.71Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 172.51Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1676, 5534, 1538

/ 100 compat

Projected

411.4 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 1676, 5534, 1538

Auto

86.6 21%

Teleop

249.2 61%

Endgame

74.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2399, 340, 4028

/ 100 compat

Projected

388.5 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 2399, 340, 4028

Auto

84.7 22%

Teleop

211.5 55%

Endgame

91.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score411.4pts

Blue projected score388.5pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.9
Score range: 315–485
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 821 vs event baseline 410.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

697.1Season APEX759

86.6Auto84.7

249.2Teleop211.5

74Endgame91

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	118
teleop	174	243
endgame	121	87
foul	5	0
total	373	448

Result

Final score

373 – 448

Prediction missed · off by 49 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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