Qualification · Qualification 125

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

401.85 – 352.37

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

365 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 716.2 ±8.7

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 111.45Rank 46Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 166.07Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 124.33Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 761.9 ±9.3

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 133.02Rank 70Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 87.96Rank 55Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 131.39Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 624, 11, 9094

/ 100 compat

Projected

401.8 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 624, 11, 9094

Auto

49.4 12%

Teleop

226.1 57%

Endgame

120.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4065, 1538, 11141

/ 100 compat

Projected

352.4 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 4065, 1538, 11141

Auto

61.5 18%

Teleop

207.5 61%

Endgame

72.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score401.8pts

Blue projected score352.4pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.5
Score range: 282–472
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 663 vs event baseline 390.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

716.2Season APEX761.9

49.4Auto61.5

226.1Teleop207.5

120.1Endgame72.9

143Consistency135

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	104	63
teleop	164	133
endgame	97	87
foul	0	15
total	365	298

Result

Final score

365 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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