Qualification · Qualification 122

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

453.34 – 255.97

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

481 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 750.5 ±9.3

9175BrainMachine-FRC

Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 70.8Rank 31Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 183.05Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 199.49Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 502.2 ±10.5

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 144.27Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 86.81Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10229Event Horizon

Season APEX 145.5Event APEX 24.89Rank 74Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9175, 469, 316

/ 100 compat

Projected

453.3 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 9175, 469, 316

Auto

85.4 19%

Teleop

220.7 50%

Endgame

136.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4674, 1741, 10229

/ 100 compat

Projected

256 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 4674, 1741, 10229

Auto

73.5 30%

Teleop

143.6 59%

Endgame

27.0 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.61 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score453.3pts

Blue projected score256pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 197.4
Score range: 186–523
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 687 vs event baseline 388.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

750.5Season APEX502.2

85.4Auto73.5

220.7Teleop143.6

136.6Endgame27

122Consistency133

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	123	57
teleop	189	96
endgame	154	53
foul	15	0
total	481	206

Result

Final score

481 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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