Qualification · Qualification 121

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

210.34 – 288.58

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

324 – 320

Prediction missed · off by 72.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 561.5 ±10.5

5557BB-R8ERS

Season APEX 144.3Event APEX 38.33Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 127.61Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11178Revelation

Season APEX 196Event APEX 44.4Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 603.8 ±9.8

7632An Kang Robotics Maker

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 131.16Rank 42Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 71.94Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 85.48Rank 39Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5557, 1676, 11178

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.3 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 5557, 1676, 11178

Auto

64.8 30%

Teleop

93.9 43%

Endgame

57.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7632, 6391, 8724

/ 100 compat

Projected

288.6 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 7632, 6391, 8724

Auto

51.7 19%

Teleop

159.9 57%

Endgame

67.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.07 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score210.3pts

Blue projected score288.6pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78.2
Score range: 140–359
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 644 vs event baseline 388.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

561.5Season APEX603.8

64.8Auto51.7

93.9Teleop159.9

57.2Endgame67.6

54Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	40
teleop	208	169
endgame	69	106
foul	0	5
total	324	320

Result

Final score

324 – 320

Prediction missed · off by 72.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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