Qualification · Qualification 119

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

417.18 – 395.23

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

516 – 455

Prediction correct · off by 79.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 699 ±9.3

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 115.6Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 125.2Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 176.38Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 651.1 ±9.3

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 121.73Rank 57Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 73.26Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 200.24Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 972, 7712, 4028

/ 100 compat

Projected

417.2 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 972, 7712, 4028

Auto

73.3 18%

Teleop

227.4 56%

Endgame

106.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9545, 1727, 5813

/ 100 compat

Projected

395.2 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 9545, 1727, 5813

Auto

71.8 19%

Teleop

251.7 66%

Endgame

57.9 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score417.2pts

Blue projected score395.2pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.9
Score range: 325–487
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 971 vs event baseline 388.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

699Season APEX651.1

73.3Auto71.8

227.4Teleop251.7

106.3Endgame57.9

91Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	94	100
teleop	255	243
endgame	167	112
foul	0	0
total	516	455

Result

Final score

516 – 455

Prediction correct · off by 79.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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