Qualification · Qualification 118

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

464.76 – 299.58

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

497 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 16.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 738.3 ±8.8

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 241.61Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 149.2Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 73.95Rank 59Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 655 ±11.7

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 72.53Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 50.43Rank 75Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6941IronPulse Robotics

Season APEX 267.4Event APEX 176.62Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1325, 7520, 2530

/ 100 compat

Projected

464.8 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 1325, 7520, 2530

Auto

76.7 16%

Teleop

231.3 50%

Endgame

157.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3990, 10002, 6941

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.6 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 3990, 10002, 6941

Auto

62.3 21%

Teleop

160.8 54%

Endgame

76.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.49 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score464.8pts

Blue projected score299.6pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 165.2
Score range: 230–535
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 797 vs event baseline 388.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

738.3Season APEX655

76.7Auto62.3

231.3Teleop160.8

157Endgame76.5

143Consistency190

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	94	86
teleop	273	105
endgame	125	109
foul	5	0
total	497	300

Result

Final score

497 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 16.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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