Qualification · Qualification 117

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

225.15 – 269.15

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

257 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 616 ±11.7

6106PrepaTec - TecGear

Season APEX 221Event APEX 33.95Rank 66Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 51.2Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 140Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 557 ±10.5

3880Tiki Techs

Season APEX 132.6Event APEX 44.77Rank 51Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1939THE KUHNIGHTS

Season APEX 214Event APEX 126.1Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4189Chargers

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 98.28Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6106, 303, 3100

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.2 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 6106, 303, 3100

Auto

44.9 22%

Teleop

104.8 51%

Endgame

57.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3880, 1939, 4189

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.2 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 3880, 1939, 4189

Auto

57.4 22%

Teleop

138.6 52%

Endgame

70.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score225.2pts

Blue projected score269.2pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44
Score range: 155–339
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 570 vs event baseline 389.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

616Season APEX557

44.9Auto57.4

104.8Teleop138.6

57.5Endgame70.3

158Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	97
teleop	117	164
endgame	86	52
foul	0	0
total	257	313

Result

Final score

257 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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