Qualification · Qualification 116

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

261.94 – 417.82

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

194 – 469

Prediction correct · off by 59.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 501.8 ±10.4

1880Warriors of East Harlem

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 94.04Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1155SciBorgs

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 45.1Rank 67Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 122.8Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 673.1 ±9.3

4188Columbus Space Program

Season APEX 214.1Event APEX 131.04Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10213BALTA

Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 144.92Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 141.86Rank 17Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1880, 1155, 2399

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.9 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 1880, 1155, 2399

Auto

39.6 15%

Teleop

155.4 59%

Endgame

66.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4188, 10213, 3314

/ 100 compat

Projected

417.8 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 4188, 10213, 3314

Auto

69.3 17%

Teleop

234.4 58%

Endgame

102.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score261.9pts

Blue projected score417.8pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -155.9
Score range: 192–488
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 663 vs event baseline 389.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

501.8Season APEX673.1

39.6Auto69.3

155.4Teleop234.4

66.2Endgame102.9

166Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	68
teleop	105	273
endgame	59	123
foul	5	5
total	194	469

Result

Final score

194 – 469

Prediction correct · off by 59.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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