Qualification · Qualification 114

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

531.65 – 445.65

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

423 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 128.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 713.8 ±9.8

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 153.92Rank 30Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 183.96Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 193.77Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 650.2 ±10.5

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 157.07Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 198.32Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3646INTEGRA BAHCESEHIR

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 90.26Rank 65Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5937, 2472, 340

/ 100 compat

Projected

531.7 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 5937, 2472, 340

Auto

86.6 17%

Teleop

299.6 57%

Endgame

135.7 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5847, 176, 3646

/ 100 compat

Projected

445.7 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 5847, 176, 3646

Auto

105.3 24%

Teleop

229.0 52%

Endgame

106.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.28 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score531.7pts

Blue projected score445.7pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 86
Score range: 376–602
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 720 vs event baseline 390.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

713.8Season APEX650.2

86.6Auto105.3

299.6Teleop229

135.7Endgame106.4

145Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	120	104
teleop	234	118
endgame	59	55
foul	10	20
total	423	297

Result

Final score

423 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 128.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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