Qualification · Qualification 113

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

392.56 – 497.09

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

280 – 436

Prediction correct · off by 86.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 736.7 ±9.3

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 215.21Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11178Revelation

Season APEX 196Event APEX 56.22Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 121.13Rank 23Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 779.7 ±8.7

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 175.05Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 70.1Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3538RoboJackets

A+

Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 251.94Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 316, 11178, 1720

/ 100 compat

Projected

392.6 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 316, 11178, 1720

Auto

100.3 26%

Teleop

186.4 48%

Endgame

101.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11, 1629, 3538

/ 100 compat

Projected

497.1 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 11, 1629, 3538

Auto

73.2 15%

Teleop

283.2 59%

Endgame

126.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.12 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score392.6pts

Blue projected score497.1pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -104.5
Score range: 323–567
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 716 vs event baseline 390.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

736.7Season APEX779.7

100.3Auto73.2

186.4Teleop283.2

101.4Endgame126.1

121Consistency145

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	112	96
teleop	84	175
endgame	84	130
foul	0	35
total	280	436

Result

Final score

280 – 436

Prediction correct · off by 86.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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