Qualification · Qualification 111

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

424.62 – 293.02

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

566 – 485

Prediction correct · off by 166.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 753.2 ±9.3

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 164.27Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 64.45Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 195.9Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 735.2 ±10.7

6998Unipards

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 70.15Rank 49Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6919The Commodores

Season APEX 232.5Event APEX 125.6Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 97.27Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4028, 1741, 4678

/ 100 compat

Projected

424.6 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 4028, 1741, 4678

Auto

116.8 28%

Teleop

205.3 50%

Endgame

88.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6998, 6919, 9094

/ 100 compat

Projected

293 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 6998, 6919, 9094

Auto

55.5 19%

Teleop

158.6 54%

Endgame

77.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.44 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score424.6pts

Blue projected score293pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 131.6
Score range: 223–495
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1051 vs event baseline 389.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

753.2Season APEX735.2

116.8Auto55.5

205.3Teleop158.6

88.1Endgame77.2

73Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	119	53
teleop	300	220
endgame	142	212
foul	5	0
total	566	485

Result

Final score

566 – 485

Prediction correct · off by 166.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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