Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
206.58 – 206.58
50%50%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
338 – 353
Prediction missed · off by 138.9 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 593.8 ±10.4
Season APEX 180Event APEX -Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 218.1Event APEX -Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 195.7Event APEX -Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 640.5 ±9.8
Season APEX 204.3Event APEX -Rank 37Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 216.5Event APEX -Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 219.7Event APEX -Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6391, 11141, 2472
50
/ 100 compatProjected
206.6 pts
~1.5 RP (championship)
Teams: 6391, 11141, 2472
Auto
62.0 30%
Teleop
103.3 50%
Endgame
41.3 20%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 40%
Supercharged: 12%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6696, 3100, 6017
50
/ 100 compatProjected
206.6 pts
~1.6 RP (championship)
Teams: 6696, 3100, 6017
Auto
62.0 30%
Teleop
103.3 50%
Endgame
41.3 20%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 40%
Supercharged: 12%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.58
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score206.6pts
Blue projected score206.6pts
Red win probability50%
Event bonus sample280alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 40%, blue 43%
Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 13%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 0
- Score range
- 133–281
- Upset likelihood
- 50%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
593.8Season APEX640.5
-Auto-
-Teleop-
-Endgame-
-Consistency-
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 43 | 16 |
| teleop | 201 | 214 |
| endgame | 94 | 78 |
| foul | 0 | 45 |
| total | 338 | 353 |
Result
Final score
338 – 353
Prediction missed · off by 138.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
first-unavailable
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