Qualification · Qualification 109

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

267.95 – 314.61

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

307 – 350

Prediction correct · off by 37.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 621.5 ±9.3

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 85.66Rank 48Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 81.3Rank 39Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 100.99Rank 46Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 702.7 ±13.9

1939THE KUHNIGHTS

Season APEX 214Event APEX 115.66Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 68.24Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3339BumbleB

A+

Season APEX 296.4Event APEX 130.71Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2718, 8724, 624

/ 100 compat

Projected

268 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 2718, 8724, 624

Auto

63.8 24%

Teleop

148.0 55%

Endgame

58.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1939, 3990, 3339

/ 100 compat

Projected

314.6 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 1939, 3990, 3339

Auto

87.0 27%

Teleop

161.8 50%

Endgame

73.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score268pts

Blue projected score314.6pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.7
Score range: 197–386
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 657 vs event baseline 392.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

621.5Season APEX702.7

63.8Auto87

148Teleop161.8

58.2Endgame73.9

129Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	38
teleop	178	195
endgame	53	112
foul	0	5
total	307	350

Result

Final score

307 – 350

Prediction correct · off by 37.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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