Qualification · Qualification 103

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

334.34 – 593.85

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

606 – 304

Prediction missed · off by 280.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 664.8 ±8.7

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 99.55Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 67.42Rank 37Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 167.37Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 847.2 ±8.1

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 275.68Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 216.18Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 101.99Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7712, 6696, 176

/ 100 compat

Projected

334.3 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 7712, 6696, 176

Auto

88.3 27%

Teleop

162.0 49%

Endgame

81.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1325, 2073, 1629

/ 100 compat

Projected

593.9 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 1325, 2073, 1629

Auto

92.4 16%

Teleop

333.8 57%

Endgame

164.0 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.86 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score334.3pts

Blue projected score593.9pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -259.5
Score range: 264–664
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 910 vs event baseline 391.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

664.8Season APEX847.2

88.3Auto92.4

162Teleop333.8

81Endgame164

124Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	114	33
teleop	377	107
endgame	110	149
foul	5	15
total	606	304

Result

Final score

606 – 304

Prediction missed · off by 280.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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