Qualification · Qualification 102

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

247.62 – 439.15

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

316 – 399

Prediction correct · off by 54.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 493.7 ±10.4

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 121.9Rank 57Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 53.9Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

999MechaRAMS

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 71.82Rank 68Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 679.6 ±10.4

6941IronPulse Robotics

Season APEX 267.4Event APEX 192.3Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 147.03Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 99.82Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9545, 303, 999

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.6 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 9545, 303, 999

Auto

57.4 26%

Teleop

122.0 54%

Endgame

45.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6941, 4674, 8393

/ 100 compat

Projected

439.2 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 6941, 4674, 8393

Auto

81.4 19%

Teleop

243.0 57%

Endgame

102.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.6 · Blue 2.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score247.6pts

Blue projected score439.2pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -191.5
Score range: 178–509
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 715 vs event baseline 391.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

493.7Season APEX679.6

57.4Auto81.4

122Teleop243

45Endgame102.9

109Consistency145

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	84
teleop	137	190
endgame	83	110
foul	45	15
total	316	399

Result

Final score

316 – 399

Prediction correct · off by 54.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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