Qualification · Qualification 101

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

445.52 – 524.85

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

615 – 429

Prediction missed · off by 132.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 729.3 ±9.3

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 162.64Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 163.67Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4188Columbus Space Program

Season APEX 214.1Event APEX 119.21Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 728.5 ±8.7

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 170.08Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 207.93Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 146.84Rank 70Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 340, 469, 4188

/ 100 compat

Projected

445.5 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 340, 469, 4188

Auto

70.9 16%

Teleop

243.3 55%

Endgame

130.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7520, 272, 4065

/ 100 compat

Projected

524.9 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 7520, 272, 4065

Auto

58.9 11%

Teleop

323.0 62%

Endgame

136.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.36 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score445.5pts

Blue projected score524.9pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.3
Score range: 376–595
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1044 vs event baseline 390.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

729.3Season APEX728.5

70.9Auto58.9

243.3Teleop323

130.6Endgame136.4

101Consistency166

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	110	58
teleop	348	243
endgame	157	118
foul	0	10
total	615	429

Result

Final score

615 – 429

Prediction missed · off by 132.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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