Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

423.37 – 513.36

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

437 – 518

Prediction correct · off by 9.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 793.8 ±13.1

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 112.02Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3339BumbleB

A+

Season APEX 296.4Event APEX 141.21Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 170.14Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 791.7 ±9.3

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 323.13Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 114.64Rank 23Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9175BrainMachine-FRC

Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 75.59Rank 31Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9094, 3339, 3656

/ 100 compat

Projected

423.4 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 9094, 3339, 3656

Auto

90.0 22%

Teleop

215.4 52%

Endgame

106.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1323, 1720, 9175

/ 100 compat

Projected

513.4 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 1323, 1720, 9175

Auto

120.1 24%

Teleop

272.8 54%

Endgame

107.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.17 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score423.4pts

Blue projected score513.4pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -90
Score range: 350–586
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 955 vs event baseline 407.7.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

793.8Season APEX791.7

90Auto120.1

215.4Teleop272.8

106.6Endgame107.7

116Consistency141

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	100	116
teleop	215	267
endgame	102	130
foul	20	5
total	437	518

Result

Final score

437 – 518

Prediction correct · off by 9.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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