Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

871.7 – 448.69

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

794 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 137.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1072.2 ±8.7

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 127.29Rank 70Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 417.51Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 326.9Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 705.5 ±9.3

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 126.48Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX 159.53Rank 52Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6017PrepaTec - Cyberius

Season APEX 219.7Event APEX 162.68Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4065, 4414, 1323

/ 100 compat

Projected

871.7 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 4065, 4414, 1323

Auto

160.4 19%

Teleop

488.5 57%

Endgame

205.9 24%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 972, 1156, 6017

/ 100 compat

Projected

448.7 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 972, 1156, 6017

Auto

84.5 19%

Teleop

251.7 57%

Endgame

102.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.78 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score871.7pts

Blue projected score448.7pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 423
Score range: 376–945
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1045 vs event baseline 406.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1072.2Season APEX705.5

160.4Auto84.5

488.5Teleop251.7

205.9Endgame102.8

70Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	183	64
teleop	420	81
endgame	186	91
foul	5	15
total	794	251

Result

Final score

794 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 137.7 pts

Match videos

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