Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

766.07 – 568.29

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

647 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 169.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1116 ±9.9

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 158.75Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 297.65Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 309.67Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 799.5 ±8.7

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 156.11Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 193.39Rank 8Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 218.79Rank 3Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8613, 6800, 254

/ 100 compat

Projected

766.1 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 8613, 6800, 254

Auto

143.7 19%

Teleop

440.7 58%

Endgame

174.5 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2412, 3128, 5199

/ 100 compat

Projected

568.3 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 2412, 3128, 5199

Auto

104.9 19%

Teleop

308.0 54%

Endgame

152.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.82 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score766.1pts

Blue projected score568.3pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 197.8
Score range: 492–842
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 996 vs event baseline 423.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1116Season APEX799.5

143.7Auto104.9

440.7Teleop308

174.5Endgame152.9

90Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	156	114
teleop	337	164
endgame	144	66
foul	10	5
total	647	349

Result

Final score

647 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 169.2 pts

Match videos

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