Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

600.29 – 648.92

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

772 – 600

Prediction missed · off by 110.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 879.4 ±8.1

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 254.5Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 93.92Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 251.87Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 794.7 ±9.3

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 204.59Rank 6Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 255.06Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 189.27Rank 52Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5907, 166, 6369

/ 100 compat

Projected

600.3 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 5907, 166, 6369

Auto

116.4 20%

Teleop

333.3 56%

Endgame

145.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7028, 5193, 3197

/ 100 compat

Projected

648.9 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 7028, 5193, 3197

Auto

142.4 22%

Teleop

359.0 56%

Endgame

142.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.49 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score600.3pts

Blue projected score648.9pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48.6
Score range: 524–725
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1372 vs event baseline 421.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

879.4Season APEX794.7

116.4Auto142.4

333.3Teleop359

145.9Endgame142.5

128Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	145	155
teleop	443	347
endgame	179	98
foul	5	0
total	772	600

Result

Final score

772 – 600

Prediction missed · off by 110.3 pts

Match videos

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