Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

480.6 – 565.15

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

530 – 517

Prediction missed · off by 48.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 800.7 ±8.8

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 72.47Rank 55Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 278.72Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 129.41Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 769.1 ±8.1

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 149.76Rank 21Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 244.65Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 170.74Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2637, 125, 9609

/ 100 compat

Projected

480.6 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 2637, 125, 9609

Auto

124.8 26%

Teleop

243.7 51%

Endgame

105.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1498, 9023, 3847

/ 100 compat

Projected

565.2 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 1498, 9023, 3847

Auto

103.7 19%

Teleop

301.1 55%

Endgame

146.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.22 · Blue 2.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score480.6pts

Blue projected score565.2pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -84.5
Score range: 405–641
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1047 vs event baseline 420.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

800.7Season APEX769.1

124.8Auto103.7

243.7Teleop301.1

105Endgame146.1

100Consistency158

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	87
teleop	298	338
endgame	158	77
foul	0	15
total	530	517

Result

Final score

530 – 517

Prediction missed · off by 48.8 pts

Match videos

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