Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

543.1 – 587.91

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

719 – 484

Prediction missed · off by 139.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 876.3 ±9.3

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 156.99Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 178.32Rank 8Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 207.79Rank 3Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 769.1 ±8.1

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 158.68Rank 21Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 251.88Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 177.35Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9068, 3128, 5199

/ 100 compat

Projected

543.1 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 9068, 3128, 5199

Auto

90.3 17%

Teleop

303.5 57%

Endgame

141.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1498, 9023, 3847

/ 100 compat

Projected

587.9 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 1498, 9023, 3847

Auto

101.3 18%

Teleop

314.0 55%

Endgame

154.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.67 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score543.1pts

Blue projected score587.9pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.8
Score range: 468–663
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1203 vs event baseline 419.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

876.3Season APEX769.1

90.3Auto101.3

303.5Teleop314

141.1Endgame154.8

81Consistency153

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	113	112
teleop	376	251
endgame	230	116
foul	0	5
total	719	484

Result

Final score

719 – 484

Prediction missed · off by 139.9 pts

Match videos

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