Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
765.8 – 599.35
89%11%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
764 – 355
Prediction correct · off by 123.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 1116 ±9.9
Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 157.53Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 356Event APEX 298.23Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 310.04Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 761.2 ±9.4
Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 297.66Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 185.3Event APEX 152.52Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 149.17Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8613, 6800, 254
87
/ 100 compatProjected
765.8 pts
~2.8 RP (championship)
Teams: 8613, 6800, 254
Auto
136.7 18%
Teleop
425.1 56%
Endgame
194.5 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 36%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 125, 7565, 9609
84
/ 100 compatProjected
599.4 pts
~1.1 RP (championship)
Teams: 125, 7565, 9609
Auto
117.5 20%
Teleop
334.6 57%
Endgame
137.9 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 36%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.75 · Blue 1.07
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score765.8pts
Blue projected score599.4pts
Red win probability89%
Event bonus sample278alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 60%, blue 56%
Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 27%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 166.4
- Score range
- 524–841
- Upset likelihood
- 11%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
1116Season APEX761.2
136.7Auto117.5
425.1Teleop334.6
194.5Endgame137.9
101Consistency97
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 167 | 103 |
| teleop | 488 | 159 |
| endgame | 109 | 88 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 764 | 355 |
Result
Final score
764 – 355
Prediction correct · off by 123.1 pts
Match videos
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