Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

575.79 – 637.77

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

569 – 693

Prediction correct · off by 31 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 860.7 ±9.3

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 218.48Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 121.32Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1987Broncobots

A+

Season APEX 323.7Event APEX 235.99Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 794.7 ±9.3

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 202.27Rank 6Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 252.1Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 183.4Rank 52Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 870, 5712, 1987

/ 100 compat

Projected

575.8 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 870, 5712, 1987

Auto

122.9 22%

Teleop

308.1 54%

Endgame

137.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7028, 5193, 3197

/ 100 compat

Projected

637.8 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 7028, 5193, 3197

Auto

138.8 22%

Teleop

349.6 55%

Endgame

143.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.41 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score575.8pts

Blue projected score637.8pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62
Score range: 501–713
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1262 vs event baseline 416.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

860.7Season APEX794.7

122.9Auto138.8

308.1Teleop349.6

137.3Endgame143

145Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	124	151
teleop	308	391
endgame	137	151
foul	0	0
total	569	693

Result

Final score

569 – 693

Prediction correct · off by 31 pts

Match videos

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