Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

648.04 – 636.36

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

717 – 548

Prediction correct · off by 78.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 879.4 ±8.1

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 268.71Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 108.62Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 270.71Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 794.7 ±9.3

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 204.22Rank 6Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 248.5Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 183.64Rank 52Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5907, 166, 6369

/ 100 compat

Projected

648 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 5907, 166, 6369

Auto

120.6 19%

Teleop

360.4 56%

Endgame

162.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7028, 5193, 3197

/ 100 compat

Projected

636.4 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 7028, 5193, 3197

Auto

146.2 23%

Teleop

354.1 56%

Endgame

128.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score648pts

Blue projected score636.4pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.7
Score range: 559–725
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1265 vs event baseline 429.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

879.4Season APEX794.7

120.6Auto146.2

360.4Teleop354.1

162.3Endgame128.9

101Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	156	151
teleop	406	266
endgame	150	131
foul	5	0
total	717	548

Result

Final score

717 – 548

Prediction correct · off by 78.7 pts

Match videos

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