Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

557.97 – 562.3

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

433 – 573

Prediction correct · off by 67.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 876.3 ±9.3

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 174.23Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 180.84Rank 8Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 202.9Rank 3Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 860.7 ±9.3

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 118.97Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 212.1Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1987Broncobots

A+

Season APEX 323.7Event APEX 231.23Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9068, 3128, 5199

/ 100 compat

Projected

558 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 9068, 3128, 5199

Auto

95.7 17%

Teleop

302.7 55%

Endgame

152.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5712, 870, 1987

/ 100 compat

Projected

562.3 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 5712, 870, 1987

Auto

130.8 23%

Teleop

300.7 54%

Endgame

126.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score558pts

Blue projected score562.3pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.3
Score range: 481–639
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 1006 vs event baseline 425.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

876.3Season APEX860.7

95.7Auto130.8

302.7Teleop300.7

152.9Endgame126.8

74Consistency152

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	113
teleop	165	329
endgame	169	121
foul	15	10
total	433	573

Result

Final score

433 – 573

Prediction correct · off by 67.8 pts

Match videos

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