Qualification · Qualification 99

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

599.46 – 441.06

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

472 – 471

Prediction correct · off by 78.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 765.1 ±9.3

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 224.64Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 184.05Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 190.77Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 726.2 ±9.5

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 270.91Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 58.94Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 111.21Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 870, 1024, 3847

/ 100 compat

Projected

599.5 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 870, 1024, 3847

Auto

125.9 21%

Teleop

323.4 55%

Endgame

138.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 125, 9200, 166

/ 100 compat

Projected

441.1 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 125, 9200, 166

Auto

85.1 20%

Teleop

247.1 58%

Endgame

91.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.57 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score599.5pts

Blue projected score441.1pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 158.4
Score range: 367–673
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 943 vs event baseline 411.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

765.1Season APEX726.2

125.9Auto85.1

323.4Teleop247.1

138.3Endgame91.7

152Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	104
teleop	200	298
endgame	171	69
foul	25	0
total	472	471

Result

Final score

472 – 471

Prediction correct · off by 78.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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