Qualification · Qualification 94

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

564.4 – 363.55

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

532 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 57 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 864.1 ±10.7

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 290.65Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 157.06Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 116.69Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 743.6 ±9.3

4027Centre Punch

Season APEX 202.6Event APEX 91.76Rank 59Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 256.54Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 15.25Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6800, 2412, 6510

/ 100 compat

Projected

564.4 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 6800, 2412, 6510

Auto

77.5 14%

Teleop

316.0 57%

Endgame

160.1 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4027, 5460, 11318

/ 100 compat

Projected

363.6 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 4027, 5460, 11318

Auto

72.8 21%

Teleop

177.6 51%

Endgame

101.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.73 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score564.4pts

Blue projected score363.6pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 200.8
Score range: 290–638
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 814 vs event baseline 412.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

864.1Season APEX743.6

77.5Auto72.8

316Teleop177.6

160.1Endgame101.1

167Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	116	51
teleop	297	128
endgame	119	103
foul	0	0
total	532	282

Result

Final score

532 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 57 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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