Qualification · Qualification 93

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

655.31 – 275.25

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

567 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 70.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 897.6 ±8.1

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 302.46Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 146.95Rank 8Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 205.9Rank 3Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 577.3 ±10.5

7567SESI SENAI OCTOPUS

Season APEX 155.6Event APEX 70.51Rank 70Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 121.11Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 83.63Rank 46Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6369, 3128, 5199

/ 100 compat

Projected

655.3 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 6369, 3128, 5199

Auto

142.8 22%

Teleop

353.8 54%

Endgame

157.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7567, 9609, 302

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.3 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 7567, 9609, 302

Auto

69.4 25%

Teleop

169.5 61%

Endgame

38.5 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.92 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score655.3pts

Blue projected score275.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 380.1
Score range: 201–729
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 895 vs event baseline 412.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

897.6Season APEX577.3

142.8Auto69.4

353.8Teleop169.5

157.2Endgame38.5

103Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	156	90
teleop	299	185
endgame	112	48
foul	0	5
total	567	328

Result

Final score

567 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 70.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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