Qualification · Qualification 91

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

510.84 – 347.09

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

323 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 146 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 657.7 ±10.4

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 258.21Rank 6Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 145.02Rank 44Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2443Blue Thunder

Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 107.61Rank 31Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 711.8 ±9.3

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 160.15Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 58.38Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 128.56Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7028, 6497, 2443

/ 100 compat

Projected

510.8 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 7028, 6497, 2443

Auto

66.9 13%

Teleop

282.0 56%

Endgame

152.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4611, 1684, 5712

/ 100 compat

Projected

347.1 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 4611, 1684, 5712

Auto

45.0 13%

Teleop

185.0 53%

Endgame

117.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score510.8pts

Blue projected score347.1pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 163.8
Score range: 273–585
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 566 vs event baseline 412.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

657.7Season APEX711.8

66.9Auto45

282Teleop185

152Endgame117.4

148Consistency169

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	55
teleop	173	107
endgame	50	61
foul	5	20
total	323	243

Result

Final score

323 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 146 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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