Qualification · Qualification 89

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

428.05 – 662.98

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

294 – 551

Prediction correct · off by 123 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 626 ±10.5

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 182.1Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 97.23Rank 67Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 148.72Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 834.8 ±8.7

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 285.92Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 204.65Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 172.41Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2724, 3792, 3181

/ 100 compat

Projected

428.1 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 2724, 3792, 3181

Auto

104.7 24%

Teleop

247.0 57%

Endgame

79.3 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5907, 3847, 571

/ 100 compat

Projected

663 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 5907, 3847, 571

Auto

101.6 16%

Teleop

370.0 56%

Endgame

183.5 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score428.1pts

Blue projected score663pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -234.9
Score range: 354–737
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 845 vs event baseline 413.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

626Season APEX834.8

104.7Auto101.6

247Teleop370

79.3Endgame183.5

182Consistency126

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	82
teleop	154	322
endgame	50	132
foul	45	15
total	294	551

Result

Final score

294 – 551

Prediction correct · off by 123 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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