Qualification · Qualification 86

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

355.44 – 354.82

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

274 – 311

Prediction missed · off by 62.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 636.1 ±10.5

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 119.58Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 170.44Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 65.42Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 713.4 ±11.2

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 122.31Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 62.07Rank 68Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 170.44Rank 51Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1477, 2992, 9200

/ 100 compat

Projected

355.4 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 1477, 2992, 9200

Auto

68.6 20%

Teleop

170.6 50%

Endgame

104.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6510, 589, 6615

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.8 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 6510, 589, 6615

Auto

61.1 17%

Teleop

183.5 53%

Endgame

104.6 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score355.4pts

Blue projected score354.8pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.6
Score range: 280–430
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 585 vs event baseline 417.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

636.1Season APEX713.4

68.6Auto61.1

170.6Teleop183.5

104.8Endgame104.6

155Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	37
teleop	140	139
endgame	57	120
foul	0	15
total	274	311

Result

Final score

274 – 311

Prediction missed · off by 62.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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