Qualification · Qualification 85

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

379.2 – 394.11

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

375 – 469

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 589.4 ±10.5

7421PrepaTec - OVERTURE

Season APEX 205.1Event APEX 130.8Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7567SESI SENAI OCTOPUS

Season APEX 155.6Event APEX 63.48Rank 70Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 184.92Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 848.4 ±11.2

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 274.64Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 106.61Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11304Meowbotics - Fresnillo PLC

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 12.86Rank 73Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7421, 7567, 1024

/ 100 compat

Projected

379.2 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 7421, 7567, 1024

Auto

68.5 17%

Teleop

212.1 54%

Endgame

113.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6800, 9609, 11304

/ 100 compat

Projected

394.1 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 6800, 9609, 11304

Auto

105.3 27%

Teleop

206.0 52%

Endgame

85.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score379.2pts

Blue projected score394.1pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.9
Score range: 304–469
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 844 vs event baseline 417.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

589.4Season APEX848.4

68.5Auto105.3

212.1Teleop206

113.3Endgame85.3

153Consistency139

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	75
teleop	173	313
endgame	106	81
foul	60	0
total	375	469

Result

Final score

375 – 469

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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