Qualification · Qualification 82

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

486.09 – 442.37

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

314 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 180.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 724 ±9.3

4027Centre Punch

Season APEX 202.6Event APEX 94.21Rank 59Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 236.88Rank 3Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 155Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 698.5 ±8.7

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 74.38Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 320.79Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11167Team Titan

Season APEX 106.3Event APEX 47.2Rank 74Record 0-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4027, 5199, 5712

/ 100 compat

Projected

486.1 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 4027, 5199, 5712

Auto

43.8 9%

Teleop

265.0 55%

Endgame

176.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8575, 254, 11167

/ 100 compat

Projected

442.4 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 8575, 254, 11167

Auto

136.2 31%

Teleop

195.9 45%

Endgame

104.3 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score486.1pts

Blue projected score442.4pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.7
Score range: 367–561
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 568 vs event baseline 417.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

724Season APEX698.5

43.8Auto136.2

265Teleop195.9

176.2Endgame104.3

135Consistency169

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	110
teleop	97	111
endgame	126	23
foul	20	10
total	314	254

Result

Final score

314 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 180.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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