Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

398.62 – 323.73

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

561 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 120.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 761.3 ±9.5

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX -0.15Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8595This Is How We Play

Season APEX 263.2Event APEX 112.7Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 286.07Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 568.9 ±11

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 67.23Rank 56Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 153.68Rank 44Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 102.82Rank 67Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11318, 8595, 6369

/ 100 compat

Projected

398.6 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 11318, 8595, 6369

Auto

119.6 30%

Teleop

194.7 49%

Endgame

79.6 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8725, 6497, 3792

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.7 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 8725, 6497, 3792

Auto

51.1 16%

Teleop

197.4 62%

Endgame

70.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.32 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score398.6pts

Blue projected score323.7pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.9
Score range: 249–474
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 807 vs event baseline 417.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

761.3Season APEX568.9

119.6Auto51.1

194.7Teleop197.4

79.6Endgame70.6

119Consistency183

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	54
teleop	317	154
endgame	130	38
foul	15	0
total	561	246

Result

Final score

561 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 120.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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