Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

449.06 – 256.97

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

602 – 404

Prediction correct · off by 150 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 719.4 ±8.7

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 115.33Rank 66Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 187.84Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 145.89Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 564.6 ±9.3

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 37.03Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6366RAM Rodz Robotics

Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 130.7Rank 62Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 89.24Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10349, 3847, 10254

/ 100 compat

Projected

449.1 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 10349, 3847, 10254

Auto

69.7 16%

Teleop

315.5 70%

Endgame

62.6 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1684, 6366, 6417

/ 100 compat

Projected

257 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 1684, 6366, 6417

Auto

24.0 9%

Teleop

150.6 57%

Endgame

87.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.68 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score449.1pts

Blue projected score257pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 192.1
Score range: 182–524
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1006 vs event baseline 416.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

719.4Season APEX564.6

69.7Auto24

315.5Teleop150.6

62.6Endgame87.9

147Consistency160

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	52
teleop	383	236
endgame	145	116
foul	0	0
total	602	404

Result

Final score

602 – 404

Prediction correct · off by 150 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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