Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

376.97 – 368.61

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

622 – 392

Prediction correct · off by 134.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 750.3 ±9.3

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 109.8Rank 52Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2357System Meltdown

Season APEX 196.7Event APEX 75.84Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1987Broncobots

A+

Season APEX 323.7Event APEX 191.33Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 651.2 ±8.7

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 115.14Rank 21Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 76.12Rank 69Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 177.35Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3197, 2357, 1987

/ 100 compat

Projected

377 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 3197, 2357, 1987

Auto

78.5 20%

Teleop

223.7 58%

Endgame

85.8 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1498, 4786, 2724

/ 100 compat

Projected

368.6 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 1498, 4786, 2724

Auto

90.4 25%

Teleop

180.6 49%

Endgame

94.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score377pts

Blue projected score368.6pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.4
Score range: 294–452
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1014 vs event baseline 415.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

750.3Season APEX651.2

78.5Auto90.4

223.7Teleop180.6

85.8Endgame94.1

183Consistency191

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	124	85
teleop	372	214
endgame	126	93
foul	0	0
total	622	392

Result

Final score

622 – 392

Prediction correct · off by 134.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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