Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

532.34 – 307.55

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

614 – 370

Prediction correct · off by 72.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 835.9 ±10.7

9066Cavalo Vendado

Season APEX 233.7Event APEX 50.38Rank 48Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 210.85Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 271.11Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 574.9 ±10.4

7565SESI SENAI ROBONÁTICOS

Season APEX 185.3Event APEX 127.75Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 133.7Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 46.1Rank 72Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9066, 5193, 5907

/ 100 compat

Projected

532.3 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 9066, 5193, 5907

Auto

41.1 8%

Teleop

288.0 57%

Endgame

176.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7565, 4611, 4256

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.6 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 7565, 4611, 4256

Auto

42.7 14%

Teleop

186.2 61%

Endgame

76.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.69 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score532.3pts

Blue projected score307.6pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 224.8
Score range: 233–607
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 984 vs event baseline 414.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

835.9Season APEX574.9

41.1Auto42.7

288Teleop186.2

176.4Endgame76.6

102Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	123	60
teleop	373	187
endgame	88	118
foul	30	5
total	614	370

Result

Final score

614 – 370

Prediction correct · off by 72.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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