Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

300.03 – 515.24

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

445 – 500

Prediction correct · off by 80.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 696.5 ±9.3

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 188.71Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 78.72Rank 55Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 32.6Rank 32Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 795.5 ±9.3

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 110.12Rank 20Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 155.96Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 249.16Rank 6Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 870, 2637, 8280

/ 100 compat

Projected

300 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 870, 2637, 8280

Auto

77.2 26%

Teleop

128.2 44%

Endgame

86.3 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 294, 2412, 7028

/ 100 compat

Projected

515.2 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 294, 2412, 7028

Auto

114.7 22%

Teleop

286.6 55%

Endgame

124.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score300pts

Blue projected score515.2pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -215.2
Score range: 226–589
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 945 vs event baseline 413.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

696.5Season APEX795.5

77.2Auto114.7

128.2Teleop286.6

86.3Endgame124.4

137Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	117
teleop	227	268
endgame	110	90
foul	30	25
total	445	500

Result

Final score

445 – 500

Prediction correct · off by 80.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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