Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

382.61 – 328.43

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

455 – 435

Prediction correct · off by 89.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 659.4 ±9.3

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 166.49Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 71.67Rank 49Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 144.45Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 711.3 ±9.8

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 116.53Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3932The Dirty Mechanics

Season APEX 201.3Event APEX 110.83Rank 41Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 101.07Rank 57Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 571, 5166, 3181

/ 100 compat

Projected

382.6 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 571, 5166, 3181

Auto

96.7 25%

Teleop

183.1 48%

Endgame

105.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9068, 3932, 6773

/ 100 compat

Projected

328.4 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 9068, 3932, 6773

Auto

76.6 24%

Teleop

164.5 51%

Endgame

81.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score382.6pts

Blue projected score328.4pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.2
Score range: 254–457
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 890 vs event baseline 413.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

659.4Season APEX711.3

96.7Auto76.6

183.1Teleop164.5

105Endgame81

176Consistency166

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	98	95
teleop	221	223
endgame	106	82
foul	30	35
total	455	435

Result

Final score

455 – 435

Prediction correct · off by 89.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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